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Fuel Week 25 - 2024/06/17 (Puerto Rico)

· 2 min read
Gabriel Smadi

What to expect​

Crude oil closed off the trading session last week at $78 per barrel after we saw a low of $73 per barrel earlier in the month. We continue to monitor crude oil benchmarks and wholesale fuel prices with expectation we are seeing lower numbers but deeper in the the summer we will start seeing un uptick in prices again.

Wholesale Diesel Trend with NY ULSD

Wholesale Gasoline Trend with RB

Highlights​

  • Gas prices cool on latest inflation report: Gasoline prices decline in May contributing to a cooling inflation report.

    "The gasoline index declined 3.6% in May on a monthly basis, compared to a 2.8% spike in April. Overall, headline inflation was unchanged from April, down from the previous month's 0.3% gain in prices." - Ines Ferré, Senior Business Reporter at Yahoo Finance

  • Gasoline expectations at the end of summer: Gasoline prices are expected to rise towards the end of the summer on outlook of a busy storm season in the Gulf of Mexico and hightened demand once schools kick into gear.

    "We believe that gasoline will be like a Bactrian camel with two humps. We’re on our way down from the first hump but a second hump may come with intense heat, brisk demand, and hurricane worries in late July and August," - Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS

  • Crude oil surplus by 2030: Falling demand for crude oil and hightened US production has IEA estimating a 8 million barrels per day surplus by 2030.

    "Oil demand will slow before peaking at 106 million barrels per day in 2030, oil production is expected to surge to 114 million barrels per day, that would result in an oversupply of about 8 million barrels. Fossil fuels account for about 80% of global energy supply and by 2030 that's expected to decrease to 73%" - International Energy Agency, Oil 2024 Report

  • Expectations on a crude oil: We have a Brent price target of $86 per barrel by Goldman Sachs during Q3 2024, Citibank goes bearish with a forecast of $60 per barrel for Brent during 2025.

Crude Oil Benchmarks​

Oil Benchmarks

References​